halfway house at present where global economic recovery is intertwined
with inflationary pressures. With most visitors to the inn showing
enormous appreciation for the opportunity to stop and rest as they
survey the height to which they have climbed, they find alongside
themselves a companion with whom they are less comfortable. As
investors remain busy building an ever-higher edifice glorifying this
recovery they drive exchange rates based on the assumption that the
cost of borrowing needs to be adjusted in order to play out their
dreams.
*U.S. Dollar* - High yielding currencies had a fire lit beneath them
after Chinese inflation data fell small of expectations and removed a
barrier to rising risk appetite. The dollar index softened but the
assault was far from broad-sided. The Aussie for example couldn't make
its rally stick, while the euro is also reversing an earlier gain.
Data due for release later on Tuesday may well show that U.S.
retailers saw increased demand from consumers for the seventh month in
a row and advancing a monetary tightening at least in the mindset of
dollar bulls. The index slipped 0.2% to 78.47 ahead of key data on
Tuesday.
*Japanese yen* - One region where recovery accompanied by rising
prices would doubtless be quite welcome is Japan, where diminishing
prices have restrained spending by consumers in the expectation that
they can buy more if they wait. On Tuesday the Bank of Japan left
monetary policy unconcerned but for the first time in nine months
raised its expectations for growth. The Bank said that "as the
growth rate of the global economy has started increasing again led by
emerging and commodity-exporting economies, Japan's exports and
production are showing signs of resuming an uptrend." And there was
more evidence of recovery in process with industrial production data
for December showing a 3.3% monthly gain to leave output higher by
4.9% year-on-year. Monthly capacity utilization rose 3% through
December. But despite an improved outlook it's highly unlikely the
Bank of Japan is set to tighten monetary policy either this year or
next. With the Centralized Reserve more likely to finally respond to a
pick-up in activity and price pressures it's the dollar that's
exerting its power over the yen with the greenback success ¥83.75 in
today's session.
*Aussie dollar -* Minutes from the RBA overnight largely reiterated
what was either mentioned in last week's policy proclamation or in
testimony from Governor Stevens. The Bank said that a "slightly
restrictive policy" was appropriate in light of rising incomes from
the commodities boom. The RBA also noted an improvement in global data
since the start of 2011 but this was countered by domestic utilization
habits where consumers were restraining their spending habits. The
Aussie rose to $1.0058 U.S. cents but later eased to 99.96 cents. Some
of the loss of wind is owed to Plates's consumer price index, which
rose by 4.9% year-on-year through January. Although the reading
remains elevated it is below a market expectation of 5.4% and takes
some of the difficulty off the central bank to bring to somebody's
attention policy further to cool the world's number two economy. The
Aussie outpaced the Japanese yen rising to ¥83.80 and success a
none-month high, while it shed nearly 1% against the British pound.
*British pound -* A 0.1% increase in January's CPI was the first in
years for an economy used to seeing goods on sale at the start of the
year. The increase brought the year-over-year rate of consumer price
inflation to 4% and twice the target rate forcing the Governor of the
bank of England to write an open letter to the Chancellor. He must do
this quarterly when inflation exceeds the government's 3% threshold of
tolerance. Sterling was cool following the actual data but received
the release of the Governor's letter with some gusto. The Governor
wrote, "The MPC judges that attempting to bring inflation back to
target promptly risks generating volatility in output and would
increase the chances of undershooting the target in the
standard-term." But the pound's response seemed to show a level of
distrust in that explicitly clear explanation as though the words
sounded hollow. The pound rose to as high as $1.6144 for a gain of a
penny on the day. Wednesday brings the Bank's quarterly economic
assessment and will shed further light on the matter.
*Euro -* The euro is higher but appears trapped in a narrow half cent
range from $1.3500. Comparing fourth quarter Eurozone and German GDP
data released clearly shows the lead the German economy commands over
its partners. The region's largest economy grew by 4% for the year
compared to 2% across the region. French GDP also disappointed
diminishing small of expectations at 1.5% and down from 1.7% through
the third quarter. Investor confidence rose for a fourth month in
Germany according to a ZEW survey, which returned a reading of 15.7
for February after 15.4 last month. This economic sentiment survey is
intended to measure activity six months forward acting as a leading
indicator.
*Canadian dollar -* The Canadian unit dug its heels in ahead of
schedule after rising prices for crude oil and gold were spurred by
spillover protests in Bahrain where a following opponent to the
government was killed, ironically at a funeral. The loonie faces no
economic data tests of its own but rose to buy $1.0137 ahead of
schedule Tuesday.
Source: ActionForex.Com
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