Wednesday, January 19, 2011

There is plenty going on in Canada this week

!! FX Market Overview !!
So Ricky Gervais has won again; his acerbic taunts towards the primped
and preened stars at the Golden Globes clearly ruffled a few feathers
and there can be no doubt they upset a few of the glitterati but
everyone is talking about it; probably as much as the Colin Firth win,
and that, as far as I can tell, is all Ricky Gervais ever wants.

A quiet day for data and a closed session for the US public holiday
meant the markets were generally quite muted yesterday. However, the
devil finds work for idle hands as they say and traders were
definitely idle. The work they found to do was to sell the US Dollar
which retreated against the Pound to the highest level we have seen in
two months.

The Pound's advance had a lot to do with this morning's release of
the UK inflation data. After a series of commodity price rises and
higher producer price inflation, we expect the inflation number to
have risen to 3.6% or thereabouts and that does reignite the debate
over just what the Bank of England's monetary policy is based on
because it cannot still be an inflation only remit when their task is
supposed to be about maintaining inflation at or near 2%; they are
consistently failing in that endeavour. However no one is expecting
any hike in UK interest rates before May. Nevertheless, if the BOE is
expected to raise rates before the US Fed and the ECB, then Sterling
could well strengthen further.

Sterling also gained ground against the Euro in spite of a growing
feeling that the Eurozone Finance Ministers will agree measures to
expand their financial support package and allay fears over the
default of any of the peripheral economies of the Eurozone. Having
said that, this morning's rumour mill suggests the agreement is less
comprehensive than that and that we may see a euro sell off because
traders will be disappointed by the result. We also get the German ZEW
survey of business confidence today and that is likely to highlight
the two-speed nature of the Eurozone with.

There is plenty going on in Canada this week as well though with the
Bank of Canada's interest rate decision today and their monetary
policy report tomorrow. No change is forecast on interest rates and
many traders will largely ignore today's event as they wait for the
more detailed assessment of the Canadian economy due tomorrow. In the
meantime, oil prices are very volatile and the US Dollar likewise so
the Canadian Dollar is being buffeted a tad.

And finally two stories seemed to arrive with a certain degree of
synergy; Mrs Trabelsi, the wife of the former Tunisian President is
reported to have made a withdrawal of £38 million in gold bars from
Tunisia's central bank before fleeing the country. No one seems at
all surprised by the event after years of avarice and showy wealth at
the country's expense but it is a salutary tale. Thankfully though,
just as this story broke, we also heard that a former Swiss bank
employee has passed CDs to wikileaks detailing all manner of tax
evasion by customers of the Swiss bank. Perhaps Mrs Trabelsi's
stolen gold will be found after all.

!! Quotes !!
"It's the one thing I actively don't like: just being recognized."
*Ricky Gervais*
"She said, 'I'm your biggest fan,' and I said, 'Who are you?' She
said, 'Paris Hilton.'"
*Ricky Gervais*
Source: Fxstreet.com

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