After neither Obama's State of the Union speech nor Fed's economic
policies revision could hold anti-USD flows, DGO will give investors
yet another opportunity to gauge the US economic situation, and lend
some support to the currency.
!! On Focus:!!
EUR/USD is the trade to focus on, as the cross approaches a critical
resistance area a 1.3745.
!! Higher Probabilities: !!
* *Better than expected:* A solid reading above estimates is likely
to cap the upside below key horizontal area 1.3740, 61.8% fib
retracement from the 1.4280 – 1.2785 decline. Focus may shift
for corrective runs to the downside, with first area of support
lying at 1.3680 (Jan 25 highs), next level faced may be 1.3640/50
(daily PP), ahead of 1.3600/05 (S1).
* *Worse than expected:* Anything below 0.9% will not to satisfy the
market, which is likely to be translated in further Dollar
weakness. Amid this scenario, traders may have a run for stop
losses above 1.3740 (61.8% fib and R1). If there is enough
follow-through to blow them up, watch for the bullish tone to
continue all they way to next target around 1.3787 (R2) before
bulls get confronted with big round number 1.3800.
* *Consensus:* The pair is likely to stall at 2-month highs, limited
by 1.3740 strong technical hurdle. You may expect some profit
taking should the level get approached, as the Euro may fall short
of impetus; bare in mind technicalities are important, and since
we have seen extremely shallow pull-backs and Friday "typical
risk-off day" gets closer, you might want to think twice before
committing to any long at this high levels.
Source: Fxstreet.com
No comments:
Post a Comment