Thursday, January 27, 2011

RBNZ stands pat on rates and outlook, underpinning NZD

*Asian Market Update:* RBNZ stands pat on rates and outlook,
underpinning NZD; Australia PM estimates economic toll of flood at
0.5%, declares emergency tax

!! Economic Data !!
*- (UK) UK JAN HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: -0.5% V -0.4% PRIOR (7th
consecutive decline); Y/Y:* -2.2% V -1.6% PRIOR (4th consecutive
decline)
*- (JP) JAPAN DEC MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE TOTAL: ¥727.7B V ¥465BE;
ADJUSTED:* ¥707.3B V ¥524BE (8-month high)
*- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M:* 0.0% V 0.3% PRIOR
*- (KS) SOUTH KOREA DEC CURRENT ACCOUNT: $2.1B V $1.9B PRIOR; GOODS
BALANCE:* $3.7B V $3.2B PRIOR
- (HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) leaves base rate at 0.50%
tracking the Fed; As expected

!! Markets Snapshot (as Of 12:30amET) !!
- Nikkei225 +0.8%
- S&P/ASX flat
- Kospi +0.3%
- Taiex +0.6%
- Shanghai Composite +1.5%
- Hang Seng +0.4%
- Mar S&P Futures flat at 1,294
- Feb Gold flat at $1,344/oz
- Mar Crude oil -0.5% $87.16/brl
- Mar Copper +1.0% at $4.29
- Mar Wheat +0.5% at $8.61
!! FX USD Majors Session Range !!
*- EUR/USD:* 1.3690-1.3715
*- GBP/USD:* 1.5900-1.5930
*- USD/CHF:* 0.9420-0.9440
*- USD/CAD:* 0.9965-0.9980
*- AUD/USD:* 0.9945-0.9960
*- NZD/USD:* 0.7700-0.7740
*- USD/JPY:* 82.00-82.30

!! Overview/Top Headlines !!
- Asian equity markets are in the green across the board in the wake
of a unanimous FOMC decision seen as increasingly supportive of risk
appetite going forward. *Neither of the two new Fed voters expected to
replace Thomas Hoenig in opposition to accommodative policy - Richard
Fisher or Charles Plosser - voted against the policy committee
decision.* Continued reluctance to acknowledge rising headline
inflation by the US policymakers is undercutting the anti-inflation
stance adopted by the Asian major economies, spurring continued gains
in risk-on commodity gauges. In the final hour of China trading,
copper was up 1% while softs such as wheat and corn were up over 0.5%.
Equity futures are also bid, rising slightly late in the session.

- *Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at 3.00% as
expected* and affirmed its December outlook. Markets anticipated a
more dovish rhetoric similar to language seen in the December
decision, when RBNZ cuts its 2011 GDP projections and said rates would
remain low until underlying inflation shows more obvious signs of
increasing. This time around, Kiwi central bank renewed its long-term
commitment to tightening while also acknowldeing stability in housing
and improved forward indicators. After initial weakness, NZD/USD
spiked by about 100 pips above $0.7740.
*- In Australia, Prime Minister Gillard estimated the impact of GDP
from the recent flooding disaster at 0.5%*. That forecast is below 1%+
forecasts from RBA and corporate sector analysts but still implies a
hefty A$6.5B toll. *More importantly, Gillard announced a one-off levy
of at least 0.5% of taxable income from A$50K-100K bracket and 1% for
those with income above A$100K.* AUD fell about 60pips against the
greenback to $0.9940 following those Gillard comments before rising
above $0.9960 later in the day..

!! Speakers/Geopolitical/In The Press !!
*- (CH) China State Council raised minimum down payment for second
homes to 60% of purchase price from 50% - China Daily*
*- (CH) China Banking Regulator (CBRC) Chairman Liu Mingkang: 2011
loan targets have not been set; Loans in January are usually higher*
- (CH) According to Beijing Times, 3 of the city's commercial banks
abolished the 15% interest rate discount on first home mortgages
*- (CH) China State Researcher:* Sees Q1 GDP around 9% and CPI at 5%;
China needs growth through foreign capital; Avoid yuan
overappreciation - China Daily

!! Equities !!
*Korea:*
*- Hyundai Motor: Reports Q4 Net profit KRW1.4T v KRW1.4Te; Op profit
KRW909B v KRW861Be; Rev KRW9.9T v KRW9.8Te*
*- Samsung SDI:* Reports Q4 Net profit KRW81.3B v KRW87Be; Op profit
KRW14.7B v KRW69Be; Rev KRW1.2T v KRW1.3Te
*- Hynix:* Reports Q4 Net KRW110B v KRW366Be (KRW1.1T prior); Op
profit KRW418B v KRW444Be (KRW1.0T prior); Rev KRW2.7T v KRW2.7Te
(KRW3.26T prior); Expects Q1 DRAM prices to fall by "high teens in %"
q/q
*Taiwan:*
*- AUO:* Reports Q4 Net loss NT$11.3B v loss NT$5.8Be; Rev NT$102.6B v
NT$35.9B y/y
*- TSMC:* Reports Q4 Net profit NT$40.7B v NT$37.9Be
*Japan:*
*- NSANY:* Reports Dec global vehicle production 351.3K units, +20%
y/y
*- TM:* Reports Dec global vehicle production 594.9K units, -6.5% y/y;
2010 production 7.62M units, +20% y/y
*- HMC:* Reports Dec vehicle production 287.7K units, +0.3% y/y; 2010
production +21% y/y at 3.6M units
*- Kawasaki Kisen:* May report FY10/11 pretax profit ¥53B v loss
¥66B y/y, Rev below ¥985B y/y by "several billion yen" - Nikkei News
*- Mitsubishi Heavy:* May post FY10/11 op profit of ¥90B v ¥81Be -
Nikkei News
*Australia*
*- RIO:* Expects to return most operations at Dampier to normal over
next 24-hours after stopping iron ore operations for the cyclone
*- MCC.AU:* Force Majeure is still in place; Dec Quarter coal
production is -24% y/y
*US/Canada:*
*- LRCX:* Reports Q2 $1.78 v $1.57e, R$870.7M v $829Me; -1.5%
afterhours
*- MUR: Reports Prelim Q4 $0.90 v $1.02e, R$6.5B v $5.6Be; -7.1%
afterhours*
*- SBUX: Reports Q1 $0.45 v $0.39e, R$3.0B v $2.9Be; -2.6% afterhours*
*- CTXS:* Reports Q4 $0.65 v $0.60e, R$529.7M v $509Me; +2.2%
afterhours
*- SYMC:* Reports Q3 $0.35 v $0.33e, R$1.6B v $1.6Be; Announces $1B
share repurchase (about 7% of market cap); +2.8% afterhours
*- QCOM: Reports Q1 $0.71 v $0.72e, R$3.35B v $3.2Be; Raises FY11
guidance; +6.2% afterhours*
*- NFLX: Reports Q4 $0.87 v $0.71e, R$596M v $598Me; +10.4%
afterhours*
*- COV: To be added to S&P 500 index, replacing MFE on a date to be
announced; +5.7% afterhours*
*- POT: Announces Three-for-One Stock Split; Raises quarterly dividend
110% from $0.10/shr to $0.21/shr on a pre-split basis; +3.0%
afterhours*

!! FX/Fixed Income/Commodities !!
*- JGB:* Japan's MoF sells ¥2.4T in 0.2% (0.2% prior) 2-yr JGBs;
bid-to-cover 5.33x v 3.50x prior
- (CH) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.5876 v 6.5816 prior close (new
yuan high since July 2005 revaluation)
*- (AU) Australia Resources Min Ferguson:* 80% of coal mines in
Queensland have returned to production, faster than expected - Sydney
Morning Herald
Source: Fxstreet.com

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