Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Risk Appetite Strong, Euro Extends Rally

*U.S. Dollar* Trading (USD) US stocks continued higher and the USD
remained under pressure as investors searched for higher returns. With
easing banking fears the market is now looking to economic data and
Central Bank interest rate announcements for direction in FX. In US
stocks, DJIA +108 points closing at 11980, S&P +7 points closing at 12
and NASDAQ + points closing at 2717. Looking ahead, January Consumer
Confidence is forecast at 54.3 vs. 52.5 previously. November Case
Shiller House Prices forecast at -0.9% vs. -1.3% m/m.

The *Euro* (EUR) The Euro hit fresh year highs before profit taking
set in but the outlook is growing more bullish as the ECB is seen more
likely to raise rates earlier than the US FED. January PMI survey's
remain strong with Services at 55.2 vs. 54.2 previously and
Manufacturing at 56.9 vs. 57.1 previously. EUR/USD traded with a low
of 1.3539 and a high of 1.3687 before closing at 1.3640. Looking
ahead, February German Consumer Sentiment is forecast at 5.4 vs. 5.4
previously.

The *Japanese Yen* (JPY) was stronger against the weak Dollar but
mixed against the rest in 'risk on' trading. News a terrorist
attack in Moscow helped the safe haven CHF and JPY but the effects
were small and short-lived.Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of
82.28 and a high of 82.94 before closing the day around 82.50 inthe
New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Rate Decision forecast to hold at
0.1%.

The *Sterling* (GBP) struggled to match the rallies in the rest of the
market with the 1.6000 level providing selling protection. EUR/GBP is
building strength above the 0.8500 level as central banks diversify
into the single currency. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of
1.5918 and a high of 1.6016 before closing the day at 1.5985 in the
New York session. Looking ahead, Q4 GDP forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.7%
previously.

The *Australian Dollar* (AUD) was buoyant with the rise in copper and
Equities supporting the risk sensitive currency. The Central bank
outlook for Australia is mixed with some calling for more hikes this
year whilst others look for a hold given the recent tragic flooding.
Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9863 and a high of 1.0024
before closing the US session at 0.9980.

*Oil & Gold* (XAU) fresh month lows where seen in late US trade on
reduced safe haven demand. Overall trading with a low of USD$1332 and
high of USD $1354 before ending the New York session at USD$1335 an
ounce. Oil came under heavy selling pressure down under $88 a barrel.
WTI Oil Closed -$1.90 at $87.70 a barrel.
Source: ActionForex.Com

No comments: