USDCHF Outlook | Written by ActionForex.com
USD/CHF's recovery was limited at 0.9914, by 4 hours 55 EMA and weakened towards the end of the week. Nevertheless, downside is still contained well above 0.9725. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading could be seen first. As noted before, recovery from 0.9462 has already completed with three waves up to 1.0065 after hitting 100% projection of 0.9462 to 0.9970 from 0.9547 at 1.0055. Fall from 1.0065 is tentatively treated as resumption of the larger down trend. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited well below 1.0065 and bring another. Meanwhile, break of 0.9725 will target 0.9547 support and then 0.9462 low and below.
In the bigger picture, outlook in USD/CHF remains bearish with 1.0330 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1729 to 0.9462 at 1.0328) intact. The long term down trend is still expected to continue towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. However, decisive break of 1.0330 will indicate that whole fall from 1.1729 has completed and stronger rebound should be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.0863 and possibly above.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
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