higher in risk appetite, the USD is once again trying to build a case
for further strength - particularly against a suddenly very shaky
Euro. What could take EURUSD down through the critical support zone
now in play.
*Weakening Euro faces test this week*
The Euro is looking very weak in the knees to start the week. The
first blow came already on Friday with the Bundesbank's Weber's
announced resignation and withdrawal of ECB candidacy. It is more than
odd to see the leading light of central banking shying away from the
most plum of possible future positions. Does this suggest that in his
heart of hearts, Mr. Weber sees the ECB as a lost cause?
Other challenges for the Euro this week: a number of bond auctions
this week (so far, demand appears about the same as at previous
auctions, but the yield spreads have been rising again in recent days)
and expectations are rising about the upcoming March summits as the
market perhaps remembers all too well the disappointments from
previous attempts by EU officialdom at presenting a united front on
getting ahead of the sovereign debt challenges. EU meetings this week
could produce rhetoric that foreshadow the degree (and potential lack)
of unity. Finally, with the Irish election approaching, the opposition
Fine Gael party is adage (according to a WSJ source) that it want to
renegotiate the terms of the EU/IMF bailout deal or it would look at a
restructuring of Irish debt. The Irish 10-year yield remains close to
the highs of the last year above 9%.
*Chart: EURUSD*
EURUSD is trying at the critical 1.3400/50 zone and it feels like the
Euro is in for a critical test with the Irish election on February 25
and all through the month of March, as EU summits in that month are of
may finally give us a longer term sense of where the fantastic PIGS
inquiry is headed in the months to come. A close below 1.3400,
together with a bout of risk aversion could seal the deal for EURUSD
and set up a larger go back toward the lowest levels of the year and
further than.
*Plates Trade Weigh*
The Chinese trade weigh showed a much smaller than expected surplus,
mostly due to a surge in imports, and since Plates is a huge importer
of commodities, this should be no huge surprise taking into account
the recent run-up in commodity prices. The first months of the year
see a seasonal dip in trade figures out of Plates, so taking into
account the trend in commodity prices lately, we might expect the
February and possibly even March trade figures to show an actual trade
shortage as we saw for March of last year.
*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the march to oblivion*
While Bernanke and company are still in QE mode, the US administration
is finally beginning to present plans for the inevitable unwinding of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - a process that can only mean tighter
lending rules and more expensive mortgages, taking into account that
virtually all of the US housing market is effectively financed by the
US government via the GSE's. This is a necessary process to have in
place ahead of the 2012 election season (which sorry to say seems to
be starting already now - one can only hope that at least one
straight-talker appears on the scene.). The first draft of the
"plot" is too vague, especially on the implementation of a
phase-out, and right reform of the GSE beast will take prodigious
effort and time, but it is clear that the ship has set sail and that
the difficulty on housing prices will remain in place for years to
come until right free market prices are found.
*Looking ahead*
Look out later for the RBA minutes - as AUDUSD is trading nervously
around parity and the market has unwound forward expectations a bit
recently on rhetoric from Stevens. Tomorrow we have Germany GDP and
the Feb. ZEW survey, and Sweden's Riksbank announcement (hike
expected, but at what point does the bank start to express concern on
the SEK strength as EURSEK plumbs new depths not seen since 2000? The
market is still pricing in over 100 bps of policy tightening for the
comgin 12 months, which would take the rate to over 2.0%). The first
huge US data points are also up tomorrow with the first regional
manufacturing survey for February (Empire) and the Advance Retail
Sales number for January.
*GBP - a critical week ahead.*
The UK CPI is up tomorrow as well, and could be critical for GBP
crosses, though the huge release for the week for the UK is the BoE
quarterly inflation report set for release Wednesday, as it will show
the BoE's stance on continued high inflation pressures and whether it
is still keen to look through higher inflation levels or if it has
caved in under the difficulty. The market is rather aggressively
looking for 80+ bps of BoE tightening in the coming year, so sparks
will likely glide in GBP-crosses this week.
*Economic Data Highlights*
* New Zealand Q4 Retail Sales ex Inflation out at -0.4% QoQ vs.
-0.5% expected
* New Zealand Dec. Retail Sales out at -1.1% MoM and -1.2% MoM ex
Autos, vs. -0.4%/-0.3% expected, respectively
* Japan Q4 GDP out at -1.1% Annualized vs. -2.0% expected and +3.3%
in Q3
* Australia Dec. Home Loans out at +2.1% MoM vs. +1.0% expected
* Australia Dec. Investment Lending rose 3.0% MoM
* Plates Jan. Trade Weigh out at +$6.46B vs. +$11.3B expected and
+$13.1B in Dec.
* EuroZone Dec. Industrial Production out at -0.1% MoM and +8.0% YoY
vs. 0.0%/+8.0% expected, respectively and vs. +7.4% YoY in Nov.
*Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)*
* Australia Feb. RBA minutes (0030)
* Plates Jan. Producer Price Index (0200)
* Plates Jan. Consumer Price Index (0200)
Source: ActionForex.Com
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