poise and is flitting between gains and losses against a basket of
currencies on the session. The greenback had lost some appeal
throughout the week following a steadfast showing from the central
bank where it appears there is modest opportunity that monetary policy
is about to be changed. Global tensions dimmed after the Egyptian
overthrow of its President while there was modest further safe haven
demand for the dollar as tensions slowly spread across the Arab world.
Much of the driving action later in the week has come from Europe
where investors keep on picking at the stitches in monetary policy in
suspense that they might soon be able to tear it away from each other
at the seams.
*British pound -* Attracting much of the spotlight this week was the
pound sterling where investors have been clamoring for signs that the
Bank of England would soon bring to somebody's attention interest
rates. Inflation rose to twice its permitted ceiling causing the
Governor to write a fifth open letter to the Chancellor explaining why
this is the case and what he intends to do about it. Despite domestic
policy dissent from external MPC members the central bank sounded off
loud and clear that it sees no need to risk negatively impact growth
in order to address a rising cost of living that it deems temporary
and driven by beastly rising commodity prices. In an unexpected twist
to end the week weather-weary consumers drove retail sales back from
the winter doldrums to the strongest advance since February 2010.
While sales without cars and fuel surged by 1.6% and far quicker than
a 0.5% forecast, the series was revised far lower for the previous
month, but investors were still taken aback by the ferocity of the
rebound. The pound jumped sharply to reach $1.6231 for its highest in
at least two weeks as investors started to sense that there may be
room for monetary tightening after all.
*Euro -* The euro was having a terrible hair day on account of an
uncomfortable surge in German producer price costs, which rose by
twice as much as forecast. The January index rose by 1.2% lifting the
year-on-year gain for factory input costs at 5.7% and up from 5.4% in
December. And while investors have been incredibly sensitive to signs
that simmering inflation might spark a response from the ECB, more
recently they have been told to lay down their pitchforks and relax.
The ECB like several other central banks observes that the global
rebound is dragging commodity prices higher and that over time this
trend will dissipate. Yet there were two pieces of news that weighed
on sentiment towards the euro this morning. First, French business
confidence for February unexpectedly stumbled to an index of 106 from
108 despite expectations of an advance. This is one of a few recent
signs that buoyancy in the region is petering out. Following, data
from the ECB showed that banks remain heavily reliant on borrowing
from the central bank. Borrowing at the marginal lending facility on
Thursday rose to €16 billion and is the highest since June 2009. So
despite concerns over inflation the rising price profile investors
rounded on the euro in the belief that all is not well and that the
simmering sovereign debt issues might yet weigh upon its appeal. But,
just to illustrate the fickle and fluid nature of this market it was a
recent headline flashing across dealers' screens that sent the euro
sharply higher after ECB member Bini Smaghi warned that the central
bank might bring to somebody's attention rates if price pressures
mount. The euro reversed a daily loss to $1.3550 to reach a session
high at $1.3619.
*U.S. Dollar* - The dollar index weakened to 77.85 following Bini
Smaghi's comments. Of course the dollar doesn't have anyone in place
of the remote likelihood that monetary policy will respond to
high-flying cost pressures. All of the growth excitement surrounding
the dollar appears to have gone into hibernation for now. The Fed has
reiterated that despite the economic rebound, it's the likely lack of
impetus in the labor market that keeps it on hold keeping investors
more likely to turn to the dollar as a involve trade victim for now
rather than a prospective candidate for rising yields.
*Japanese yen* - With modest to upset risk appetite overnight the yen
is also suffering from the same style of weakness as the dollar in
that investors continue to small it in exchange for high yielders or
equities and bonds further than its waters. The yen relaxed a tad
against the dollar, which recently bought ¥83.42. The euro rose to
buy ¥113.73.
*Aussie dollar -* The Aussie appears in excellent shape against the
dollar although it's unable to end the week on as high a note as it
squeaked on Thursday. With no economic data to report overnight the
unit is a modest softer against the dollar at $1.0100 U.S. cents. In
overnight trading the Aussie surpassed its best level of Thursday to
reach a one-week high at $1.0137 cents.
*Canadian dollar -* A tame consumer price index from Ottawa this
morning has left the Canadian dollar largely unchanged against its
U.S. counterpart. January consumer prices were unchanged on the month
causing the annual pace of change to fall to 2.3%, while the Bank of
Canada's favored core CPI reading was also unchanged after a December
decline of 0.3%. The annual core rate slipped to 1.4%. The tame report
pulled the rug from beneath the crowd arguing for a monetary
tightening to some degree. But, the health of the Canadian economy is
unambiguous and is likely to deliver what might best be described as a
perfect storm for Canadian policy makers. The local dollar currently
buys $1.0166 U.S. cents and unchanged from Thursday.
Source: ActionForex.Com
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