permanent bail-out fund should have a lending capacity of
EUR500bn.
* The new permanent mechanism would thus have the funds to help
Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain simultaneously, but not Italy.
* The announcement of the permanent mechanism is a step in the right
direction, but is unlikely to be sufficient to cool investor
concerns.
The eurozone's finance ministers, the Eurogroup, agreed late last
night that the permanent mechanism (the European Stability
Mechanism), which will come into break down on 1 July 2013, should
be able to accord up to EUR500bn in loans to countries in
difficulty. The plot is expected to be ratified by government
leaders at the end of March.
The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will exchange the existing
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which officially has
EUR440bn at its disposal but in reality can only lend up to EUR260bn
due to various limitations (counting that countries receiving help do
not have to contribute). The ESM will thus considerably increase the
potential for supporting countries in difficulty.
The ESM would have the funds to simultaneously help Greece, Ireland,
Portugal and Spain. But, if Italy suddenly found itself on the verge
of sovereign bankruptcy and questioned for help, the euro area would
still have a virtually irresolvable conundrum.
The announcement of the EUR500bn, which will be available from 1 July
2013, is also fascinating because it may indicate what EU leaders
could potentially agree with respect to humanizing the existing rescue
package at their summit in March. EU leaders at the summit will
doubtless agree to up the EFSF's loan capacity to EUR440bn - and
perhaps even to EUR500bn. Countries could also potentially be allowed
to borrow at lower levels of interest. Ireland, for example, is
currently paying a hefty premium on its EU loans. Countries may also
be allowed to use EU funds to buy back their own government bonds in
the markets. But, the outlook is for some extremely tough negotiating,
as not least Germany will make considerable demands on the "weaker"
nations to tighten policy - counting the adoption of a European
competitiveness pact.
There is an unwritten understanding between the EU and the IMF that
the IMF will contribute 50 cents for every euro that comes from the
EU. Hence the EUR500bn from the EU can doubtless be supplemented with
a further EUR250bn from the IMF.
The announcement of the ESM is a step in the right direction, but is
unlikely to cool the concerns of investors. We expect that EU leaders
will agree at the end of March that there is a need for more money on
the table right now and that countries in need of help should have the
opportunity to borrow from the EU on more favourable terms. These
measures could potentially ease the debt crisis, but it is still too
ahead of schedule to discount it.
Source: ActionForex.Com
No comments:
Post a Comment