Wednesday, January 19, 2011

USD at multi-week lows vs EUR, GBP, AUD

*Asian Market Update:* USD at multi-week lows vs EUR, GBP, AUD; China
Dec CPI leaked at 4.6%, below expectations
!! Economic Data !!
- (*AU) AUSTRALIA JAN WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE M/M: -5.7% V 0.2%
PRIOR (matches 8-month low); CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 104.6 V 111
PRIOR*
*- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN DEWR SKILLED VACANCIES M/M:* -4.6% V -1.0% PRIOR
(biggest decline since May 2009)
*- (JP) JAPAN NOV TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M:* 0.6% V 0.5%E (4-month
high)
*- (JP) JAPAN DEC TOKYO CONDOMINIUM SALES Y/Y:* 40.8% V 0.8% PRIOR
(6-month high)

!! Markets Snapshot (as Of 12:30amET) !!
- Nikkei225 +0.2%
- S&P/ASX +0.7%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiex +1.1%
- Shanghai Composite +1.1%
- Hang Seng +0.8%
- Mar S&P Futures flat at 1,295
- Mar Gold +0.4% $1,374/oz
- Feb Crude oil +0.2% $91.54/brl
- Mar Copper +0.5% at $4.45
!! FX USD Majors Session Range !!
*- EUR/USD:* 1.3370-1.3470
*- GBP/USD:* 1.5950-1.6020
*- USD/CHF:* 0.9580-0.9645
*- USD/CAD:* 0.9890-0.9925
*- AUD/USD:* 0.9960-1.0040
*- NZD/USD:* 0.7705-0.7755
*- USD/JPY:* 82.10-82.70

!! Overview/Top Headlines !!
- Asian equity markets are in the green across the board, taking cue
from modest gains on Wall Street, strong earnings from tech
heavyweights afterhours, and rising expectations of benign inflation
data out of China. Key US indices rallied 0.4% following an extended
holiday weekend, shrugging the announcement from Apple on Sunday that
CEO Steve Jobs is taking an indefinite medical leave from the company.
One of the first-tier tech names reporting results afterhours, *Apple
continued to reverse severe early weakness afterhours, beating handily
on both top and bottom lines.* Likewise, IBM and Western Digital
results were much better than expected, boosting manufacturing
tech-heavy Asian regional indices.

- Risk appetite was further boosted by a leak from Hong Kong media
related to December and year-end economic data out of China. Although
the official data is not expected to be released until tomorrow, *Hong
Kong's Phoenix TV put China December CPI at 4.6% - below 4.7%
estimate. 2010 GDP was rumored at 10.3%, just above 10.2% consensus,*
with YTD CPI at 3.3%. Softening monthly data follows November's 5.1%
CPI - a 28-month high - portending a less aggressive policy tightening
by the PBoC.

!! Speakers/Geopolitical/In The Press !!
- (CH) State Administration of Foreign Exchanges (SAFE) head Yi Gang:
Overall strategy to achieve convertibility of the yuan progressively
and push for more internationalization of the yuan over 5-years -
Chinese Press
*- (KS) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Kim: Inflation may remain around 3.5%;
may upgrade 2011 GDP forecast*
- (KS) China has stationed an unknown number of troops in North Korea
in the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone; Troops are there to
protect port facilities China has invested in - Korean Press
*- (SP) The new EU bank stress tests could reveal that some Spanish
banks need to raise capital - El Pais*
- (US) Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will not seek re-election in 2012
- (AU) According to Barclays analysts, insured losses from Australia's
flooding may top $6B; Reconstruction costs seen around A$20B - New
Zealand press
- (NZ) According to Goldman Sachs, retail outlook report for New
Zealand, 2011 retail growth seen at 1.4% - below 1.9% in 2010; Sees
2011 GDP at 2.9% - New Zealand press

!! Equities !!
*- Tokyo Steel:* Reports 9-month Net loss ¥4.4B v loss ¥1.7B y/y, Op
loss ¥4.2B v ¥1.6B y/y, Rev ¥114.6B v ¥78.8B y/y; Lowers FY10/11
guidance to Net ¥8B, Op loss ¥8B, Rev ¥152.5B
*- Nikon Corp:* May report Q3 op profit up 4x y/y around ¥18B -
Nikkei News
*- TSM: CAPEX may reach $8B in 2011, above prior speculation of about
$6B - Asian press*
*- Fortescue:* May borrow $2.5B to finance iron ore production
expansion to 155M tons from 40M tons - Sydney Morning Herald
*- Leighton:* Thiess unit awarded a 6-year A$1.3B mining contract in
Queensland from Peabody Energy
*- AAPL: Reports Q1 $6.43 v $5.40e, R$26.7B v $24.4Be; +1.3%
afterhours*
*- IBM: Reports Q4 $4.18 v $4.08e, R$29.0 v $28.3Be; +2.9% afterhours*
*- WDC: Reports Q2 $0.96 v $0.58e, R$2.48B v $2.3Be; +2.8% afterhours*
*- CREE: Reports Q2 $0.55 v $0.58e, R$257M v $277Me; -15.5%
afterhours*

!! FX/Fixed Income/Commodities !!
- (CH) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.5885 v 6.5829 prior close (new
high setting for Yuan since 2005 revaluation)
*- (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction:* Milk product prices
+1.2% from prior auction on Jan 4th
Source: Fxstreet.com

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