The FOMC rate decision will receive top billing during the upcoming week, but consumption and inflation data from the U.S. could prove more market moving. The central bank isn't expected to take any new actions following their announcement of QE2 the month prior. Meanwhile, retail sales and consumer price gauges will provide insight into the prospect of additional measures form the monetary authority and could determine short-term dollar direction. U.K. employment and inflation data also dot the calendar and will have implications for the path the MPC will take.
- U.S. Retail Sales(NOV) – December 14– 13:30 GMT
A return of the U.S. consumer is one of the keys to sustaining the global recovery especially during the critical Holiday season. Therefore, the November retail sales report will be one the most important releases on the week and holds market moving potential. Forecasts are for a 0.6% increase marking the fifth straight monthly gain and a sign that demand is sustaining. However, the expectations have started to rise with reports of a strong black Friday and a inline or miss could spark volatility. A decline in risk appetite favors the dollar, but we could see weakness ahead of the FOMC decision as markets start to price in additional QE. Conversely, a stronger than expected reading would feed into building optimism which may weigh on the greenback unless monetary policy ramifications spark support.
- FOMC Rate Decision – December 14– 19:15 GMT
U.S. policy makers will convene to determine future monetary policy with markets expecting that the central bank will keep rates unchanged on the heels of their announcement of $600 billion in QE at their November meeting. However, markets will pay close attention to the post release remarks following recent comments from Chairman Ben Bernanke that there was room for more asset purchases. A pending approval for tax cuts by Congress should lead to a subdued FOMC as it reduces the possible need for QE3. Nevertheless, there is always potential for short-term volatility on the remarks as traders adjust their outlook for monetary policy.
- U.K. Jobless Claims (NOV) – December 15 – 09:30 GMT
U.K. inflation is expected to remain at 3.2% which will shift focus to the labor market as traders try and determine the sustainability of the current pace of price growth. Economists are expecting the labor market to have remained virtually flat with jobless claims falling by 3,000. It would mark the fifth straight month that we saw a change in either direction less than 5,000 signaling that the recovery may be stalling. U.K. policy makers have continued to warn that there is significant existing slacking the economy which is why markets are looking for signs that the BoE is getting close to adding to their asset purchase program. Therefore, an increase in the number of unemployed for the third time in the last four months could send the pound lower as we saw with the recent drop in home prices.
- U.S. CPI (NOV) – December 15 – 13:30 GMT
Following the FOMC's initiation of QE2 there has been a greater focus on U.S. inflation as concerns grow that the additional pump priming will put upward pressure on prices. The central bank cited downside risks to consumer prices as a reason for the added stimulus measures and if prices continue to trend lower, then the prospect for more bond buying could weigh on the greenback, Conversely, an upside price could add to rising yield expectations and reignite support for the reserve currency. Forecasts are for a decline in CPII to 1.1% from 1.2% supporting the central bank's case.
- German IFO Expectations(DEC) – December 17– 09:00 GMT
German business confidence unexpectedly soared last month despite the ongoing issues in Ireland, with optimism expected to have held firm as solutions are being generated for the indebted country. The IFO institute gauge is forecasted to slip to 106.0 from 106.3 where another upside surprise could add to building confidence in the region. The release will be the only tier one gauge on the last day of the week and may provide a final opportunity to take advantage of volatility. Continue confidence could generate support for the single currency, but if the debt crisis is dimming the outlook for business leaders in the regions largest economy, downside risks will increase.
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