Thursday, December 23, 2010

US GDP Release Misses Expectations, But USD Still Stronger vs EUR, GBP


US GDP Misses Expectations, Still Better at 2.6% Annualized Rate


The third version of the US GDP release for the 3rd quarter undershot expectations but still shows a US economy that is picking up growth on the back of stronger consumer spending. There had been a build up to this report, with the consensus forecast coming in at around 2.8%. Instead we got a smaller increase to 2.6% from the preliminary estimate of 2.5%.




Bloomberg: “The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, marking a pickup in growth that may extend into 2011 as companies and consumers gain confidence to spend. Inventories rose more than initially reported, while the rise in household purchases was revised down.

Growing incomes, the continuation of Bush-era tax cuts and an improving labor market may encourage Americans to boost their spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. Today’s figures showed a measure of inflation rose at the slowest pace in more than 50 years, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s strategy of extending record monetary stimulus.

Today’s figures set the stage for “a stable pace of growth” in 2011, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. The lack of “inflation does remain the biggest downside risk to the U.S. economy” and GDP expansion at this rate “is not enough to move unemployment meaningfully,” he said.”




While the report caused some indigestion for the USD, after the initial 30 minutes, USD took control against EUR and GBP, setting fresh 3-month lows in GBP/USD for instance. The market seems to be able to look past the missed reading and stay confident that the US economy is doing well in the 4th quarter, and that the first half of next year – with the goosed up economy from tax cuts – supporting US growth and the USD. 


From the Release: “The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a sharp deceleration in imports and an acceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports.

http://www.fxtimes.com/

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