Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Australian Dollar Outlook 01/12/2010

Australia: The AUD has opened lower this morning as investors move out of risk for safe haven assets such as the USD.
After trading above USD0.9600 for most of yesterday's local session, the AUD fell through that level after some pretty negative data out of Canada and the US.
A sell-off of the EUR also placed pressure on the local unit as EU measures to control sovereign debt left investors uncertain and anxious.
US stocks fell for a third straight day before recovering slightly after a better than expected reading on US consumer confidence.

This helped the AUD bounce back above USD0.9600 later in the session.
Today the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the national accounts, including gross domestic product for the September quarter at 11.30am (AEST).

Economists have forecast economic growth will have slowed in the third quarter of 2010. If we see a significantly weaker number than forecast, the AUD may test below USD0.9550.
Also being released today is the Australian Industry Group and Pricewaterhouse performance of manufacturing index for November.

Majors: For the first time in a while the US announced some positive data during the offshore session, although it was not enough to reduce the continued fears in the market regarding the sovereign debt problems in Europe.
US consumer confidence was higher this month, posting results above the markets expectation.
The index came in at 54.1, stronger than the 53 that markets expected; showing that there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the US economy.

The Chicago and Milwaukee PMI were also greater than expectations; rising to 62.5 and 59 respectively.
The EUR/USD has fallen below USD1.3000 overnight for the first time since September as investors confidence in the economic health of the Euro-zone continue to crumble.

The aid package announced last week to assist Ireland has done little to ease fears, and has seen many of the major financial institutions including Deutsche Bank revise their forecasts for the common currency.
There are also fears that the debt crisis may spread outside the Euro-zone and affect the countries that sell their exports to the region.www.ibtimes.com

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