Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Early optimism browbeats dollar

The dollar is coming under fire across all fronts following a rise in
risk appetite in all corners of the globe. Japan has decided that it
has a moral obligation to shore up Ireland through purchasing more
than one-in-five bonds issued by Dublin this year and next under a
€50 billion financial aid facility. The move follows China's
recent support for Portugal. Meanwhile the Chinese yuan rose at a
decent clip overnight and ahead of Premier Hu Jintao's visit to the
U.S. next week inspiring a rerun of the recent risk-on approach
towards Asian dollars. Despite negative domestic news in Britain and
Australia, both units have rebounded against the greenback.

*U.S. Dollar –* Recent gains for the dollar have come from an
improved tone to domestic data while investors frown over the
prospects for the single European currency. Data from China overnight
suggested the nation's banks lent more than the Peoples Bank of
China had targeted. However, the bigger news was a permitted
appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which observers claim is an effort
to show good will ahead of Premier Jintao's Washington visit next
week. The dollar index slipped to 81.10 as the dollar fell out of
favor at the start of Tuesday's trading.

*Euro –* An early assault on the euro failed to gather momentum
stopping half a cent shy of Monday's weakest point leading to some
nervous euro buying. Overnight Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko
Noda committed some of his nation's more than $1 trillion in
reserves to aiding the Irish government. He said that as a leading
nation Japan must send a signal of confidence in the financial
assistance fund announced last month under which Ireland is due to
issue €50 billion euros this year and next. Japan would like to buy
as much as 20% said Mr. Noda. The euro rose Tuesday to $1.2982 as
investors either went long or covered existing short positions in the
single currency. Against the Japanese yen the unit rallied away from
close to a four-month low and today buys ¥107.54.

*Japanese yen –* The dollar has come off an overnight high at
¥83.16 to trade at ¥83.00 per dollar although the yen remains lower
on the session following Finance Minister Noda's Irish embrace. It
is, however, no surprise to see the yen weaker this morning as traders
plow back into risk. Monday's move up in the yen was associated with
a broader loss of confidence as European debt fears rose and so an
unwinding of such concern ought to suit the dollar more so than the
yen.

*British pound –* A dip in the December fortunes for British
retailers weighed heavily on the pound earlier in the day sending the
pound half a cent lower against the dollar to $1.5513. Concerning
investors currently is the building evidence that fiscal austerity
measures are biting into domestic demand leaving external demand to
take up all the running in 2011. Their conclusion is that this can't
be a good thing for the pound, which later rallied to unchanged on the
session at $1.5573. The British Retail Consortium reported a
weather-related drop of same store sales of 0.3% compared to a year
ago following a nice 0.7% gain for the data in the previous month. The
pound later rose against the yen to buy ¥129.20 and remained slightly
weaker against the euro at 83.23 pence.

*Aussie dollar –* The fact that Australia's third-largest city is
underway with evacuation procedures crystallizes the deteriorating
circumstances brought about by an escalation in the severe weather
affecting the state of Queensland. Investors have pounded the domestic
dollar on rising concerns for growth in the region and this morning
sent it to its weakest point in a month when it traded at 98.20 U.S.
cents. The Aussie has done little but fall for the last seven trading
sessions given the growing uncertainty surrounding the affair, but
today has rebounded sharply as selling dried up and investors took to
picking on the greenback instead. The Aussie rebounded sharply to
reach a recent peak at 98.86 cents.

*Canadian dollar –* The Canadian currency is testing Friday's high
inspired at the time by a buoyant employment report. The global
recovery provides the loonie with commodity-related demand, while the
U.S. recovery adds spice on account of the fact that the world's
largest economy sucks up 70% of Canada's exports. Today the Canadian
dollar buys $1.0089 U.S. cents.
Source: Fxstreet.com

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