European Market Update: No fresh rate moves by China provides minor relief to risk appetite
ECONOMIC DATA
- (FR) France Oct Current Account: -€2.5B v -€4.4B prior
- (FR) France Q3 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim
- (SP) Spain Oct House transactions Y/Y: -17.7% v -4.1% prior
- (TU) Turkey Oct Current Account (TRY): -3.7B v -3.7Be
- (SZ) Swiss Nov Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.4% v 2.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 Producer Price Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.0% prior
- (SW) Sweden Nov AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.3% v 4.4%e
- (UK) PPI Input M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.0% v 8.3%e
Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany sold €1.715B in 12-Month BuBills; avg yield 0.7492% v 0.8716% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.3x v 3.3x prior
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Notes/Observations:
- China Nov CPI at 28 month highs of 5.1%; China refrained from raising interest rates
- Risk appetite welcomes China lack of rate move
- US 10-year yield hit 6-month highs of 3.36%
- Multiple small European oil M&A flows in session
Equities:
Eurostoxx50 at 2854, +0.51%, FTSE100 at 5853, +0.70%, CAC40 at 3882, +0.65%, DAX at 7025, +0.27%
- European shares opened higher and remained in positive territory for the 6th straight session following strong US data last week while expectations for a Chinese rate hike proved to be unfounded. Despite higher inflation data and the increase in the reserve requirement ratio on Friday, China's anticipated and speculated policy tightening failed to materialize. This buoyed bullish sentiment in the markets. In the US, investors are expecting a FOMC meeting on Tuesday where the $600B stimulus plan will be discussed. Investors expect the amount to remain unchanged. Despite the positive newsflow, it is unlikely that investors will take significant risks as 2010 draws to a close.
- The markets were dominated by M&A news. Wellstream Holdings [WSM.UK] rose 5% approximately after agreeing to be bought by GE at a bid of 780p/shr which valued the deal at $1.3B. The prior offer had been at 750p/shr. Regal Petroleum [RPT.UK] confirmed receiving a 24p/shr offer from Energees Management Limited valuing the company at £76M. Shares rose about 6% following the announcement. Yule Cato [YULC.UK] rose by 4% after acquiring Polymerlatex Group for £443M and announced a 4 for 3 rights issue to raise £225M.
- Renault [RNO.FR] rose in the session by 1% after company guided in Le Figaro net income and revenues which exceeded investors' expectations. Credit Suisse also rose less than 1% after an article on FT reported that the bank may issue up to $30B Coco bonds to meet new capital rules.
Speakers:
- China's PBoC issued statement on Central Economic Work Meeting in which it confirmed the previously announced increase to RRR. The PBoC also confirmed to have prudent monetary policy
- OECD commented that the Euro area was recovering but major reforms were needed to restore stability. The build-up of large economic, fiscal and financial imbalances demanded a coherent and forward-looking reform agenda.
- Russia Central Bank official: There could be some interest rate increase during Q1 of 2011
- German RWI think tank commented that Germany's economic expansion was likely to accelerate butrisks remained. It cautioned that it remained to be seen, how the debt crisis in the euro zone and the US real estate crisis would develop further. It also noted that lower US consumption could restrain global expansion more than expected. Lastly the danger that other euro-zone countries apart from Greece and Ireland would require a bailout, which could cause lasting damage to the stability of the euro zone. On the positive side it noted the Germany's recovery would become increasingly driven by domestic demand as an only moderate expansion of the world economy is likely to limit export growth, while domestic German demand is expanding amid falling unemployment
Currencies:
- The lack of action out of China on interest rates provided some relief in risk appetite sentiment during the session. Overall the USD remained generally locked with 72 hour ranges against the European pairs. Dealers note that due to Year end the liquidity conditions would dry up over the next few weeks.
The USD/JPY seemed to bode an increasingly better technical picture as it was holding above the 84 handle. Dealers cited that a breech of the key hourly point of 84.40 could elect a fresh wave of USD buy-stops. Year-end price level tends to love the way of 'least-resistance. The BOJ could take note of the potential effects on adding to JPY weakness.
The USD/JPY seemed to bode an increasingly better technical picture as it was holding above the 84 handle. Dealers cited that a breech of the key hourly point of 84.40 could elect a fresh wave of USD buy-stops. Year-end price level tends to love the way of 'least-resistance. The BOJ could take note of the potential effects on adding to JPY weakness.
- The Peripheral experienced some modest tightening during the opening of European equities this Monday. But ahead of the Spanish 12-month and 18-month paper auction scheduled for Tuesday the narrowing of the spreads was quite limited.
Geo-Political/ In the Papers:
- In the Irish press, it was reported that the Irish opposition party Fine Gael will seek to renegotiate the IMF/EU package if elected in 2011. Fine Gael and another opposition party, Labor, are expected to join forces for the election and vote against the package this on Wednesday the 15th of December. As a reminder, the IMF will consider the €22.5 billion portion of the bailout package until the Thursday following the Irish parliamentary vote assuming its passage.
- Credit ratings agency Moody's made comments today on the Spanish banking sector. They continued to maintain an Outlook Negative for Spanish banks due to capitalization, profitability and access to market funding. The driving factors for this continued negative trend are the country's difficult economic conditions, continued asset quality deterioration and the Spanish government's fiscal austerity plans. This outlook expresses the rating agency's expectation for fundamental credit conditions among Spanish banks over the next 12 to 18 months.
- According to the Financial Times, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) may be used to purchase certain government bonds. The €440 billion fund, which was created to help with sovereign bailouts, may be used to purchase distressed government debt. Such a plan may allow troubled governments to be helped without large scale bailouts. The EFSF could also be used to provide short-term credit lines to countries.
Looking Ahead:
- 6:00 (NV) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €7.5B in three tranches of Bills
- 7:00 (IC) Iceland Nov Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.5% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Oct Current Account: -€1.1Be v -€14B prior; Trade Balance: -€823Me v -€537M prior
- 8:00 (SP) ECB's Ordonez Speaks in Madrid
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate: 76.5%e v 76.0% prior
- 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) to sell €6.0B in 3-month and 1-year Bills
- 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refi Tender
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.4%e v 6.3% prior
-10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Vehicle Production: 204.0Ke v 220.7K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 74.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 166.9K prior
- 11:30 (GE) German Finance Minister Schaeuble Speaks
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $29.0B in 3-Month Bills and $28B in 6-Month Bills
- 11:55 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney Speaks in Toronto
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